Cubs should stop pretending they're contenders

Baseball Betting Lines

07/15/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's been a typical summer along the North Side of Chicago. The sun is shining, the bleachers and rooftops that surround the incomparable Wrigley Field are packed to the gills, and the beer pours endlessly from the watering holes neighboring one of the grand spectacles in all of baseball.

October's going to have a familiar feeling for Cubs fans as well, with their beloved and star-crossed club in the midst of yet another season of unmet expectations. After losing three of four games to the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend, Chicago limps into the All-Star break with a 39-50 record completely unfitting of a team carrying the highest payroll in the National League.

This current outfit, now 9 1/2 games back of the resurgent Cincinnati Reds for first place in the NL Central, also bears little resemblance to the budding juggernaut that won a league-best 97 times during the 2008 regular season. It hasn't even been able to match the (under) achievements of last year's toxic group that went 83-79 as the prohibitive favorites to repeat as division champs.

A lack of clubhouse chemistry helped sabotage the 2009 squad, and this year's Cubs have yet to find the right combination as well even after weeding out the bad seeds -- namely combustible outfielder Milton Bradley -- during an offseason house cleaning. Chicago has looked both lifeless and in decline for the better part of the past 2 1/2 months, either too old or too disinterested to make the run necessary to challenge the Reds and St. Louis for division supremacy.

Even manager Lou Piniella, renowned for his intensity and passion to succeed, seems to have lost some of his trademark fire. Makes you wonder if the longtime skipper, who's in the final year of his contract, is ready to trade in the grueling road trips and draining summer days of July and August for the golf courses and shuffleboard tables many soon-to-be 67-year-olds are enjoying these days.

Piniella may not be the only member of the organization with numbered days. This season's performance has clearly put much-maligned general manager Jim Hendry's fanny on the hot seat, especially since he wasn't hired by first-year owner Tom Ricketts, while a host of high-priced veterans could be jettisoned by the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline if the new regime chooses to slash payroll and commit to a more youth-oriented movement.

For what it's worth, Ricketts did issue a public declaration of confidence for his GM last week, just as the record should show that Hendry's two main offseason moves have each paid off handsomely so far. He unloaded the controversial Bradley to Seattle in exchange for pitcher Carlos Silva, who's emerged as the club's most dependable starter, while free-agent acquisition Marlon Byrd ranks among the NL's leading hitters and garnered his first career All-Star selection with a terrific first half.

"I'm not going to assign blame to anyone or anything," Ricketts recently stated. "The fact is when we came into the season, we had what appeared to be a pretty strong lineup. It hasn't worked out for whatever reason."

Ricketts has a point. A powerful Chicago offense that topped the NL in runs scored during the 2008 campaign no longer strikes fear in the hearts of opposing pitchers, even with several core players still on the roster. The Cubs entered the break 14th in the Senior Circuit in scoring and 13th in on- base percentage, and were shut out for the sixth time in the past 22 games after a 7-0 setback to the Dodgers on Sunday.

While the decision to become sellers should be an easy one, unloading some of Chicago's pricey players figures to be a greater challenge. First baseman Derrek Lee and third baseman Aramis Ramirez, both of whom have struggled mightily as the expected middle-of-the-order anchors, will be tough to deal due to hefty contracts that don't reflect their eroding skills. Same goes for outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, one of Hendry's personnel missteps who's lost substantial playing time to promising rookie Tyler Colvin in recent weeks.

Then there's the curious case of Carlos Zambrano, the Cubs' one-time ace presently serving a team-issued suspension for a dugout blowup in late June. The team would likely be thrilled to rid itself of the volatile right-hander, but chances are the market's pretty dry for a pitcher with a 5.66 ERA and obvious maturity issues who's still owed nearly $38 million over the next two years.

Even Chicago's most attractive trade chip, left-hander Ted Lilly, has seen his value plummet after getting roughed up for 16 runs and serving up five homers in his final two starts before the All-Star break.

Laying the groundwork for a transition phase won't be an easy task for the Cubs, nor will contending with a frustrated fan base that's endured a lifetime's worth of heartache. But the last 1 1/2 years have proved that the status quo simply isn't good enough for baseball's unluckiest franchise, and a shakeup seems to be the only real recourse.

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Super Bowl 2009 Betting

Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositions

Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.

Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.

Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.

If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.

Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.

By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.

In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.

So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.

While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.

There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.

In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:

SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.

XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.

XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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